As we learned with Ed in 2015, the state of the polls has a real effect on voting intentions.
When the public believed they faced a choice between Prime Ministers Cameron or Miliband, and a rising SNP, a significant number of swing voters opted for the Conservatives.
A similar dynamic could well play out today. Indeed the Conservatives heavily sold, early on, the election as a presidential race.
This fizzled out quickly as, primarily, it was completely ridiculous. With Labour around 16 points behind such a line was difficult to sell.
Low polling has a constitutive effect as well. With Corbyn so distant from Number 10 candidates become easier to sell on the doorstep to the swathes who say they ‘don’t like Corbyn’.
Herein lies Labour’s polling problem. High polling puts the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn near Number 10 on the electorates minds and drives Labour’s polling down. Low polling insulates candidates from the leadership’s unpopularity and drives polling up. Repeat.
Labour is currently on the rise and this is likely to continue as the Conservatives continue with self-inflicted wounds, borne of their complacency, and the perception of President May begins to crack.
However, this only returns us to the dynamic in which Labour is likely to fall, when Corbyn is seen as a real contender.
For Labour to break this cycle and stand a chance something very significant, but not impossible, has to happen.
The public have to change their minds.
It sounds fairly obvious and achievable. Perhaps it is, but people rarely change their minds in an election campaign. The campaign period is about focusing on your strengths and neutralising your weaknesses – minds are rarely changed on the core issues.
However, the Prime Minister’s strengths are few and her many weaknesses are showing.
Strong and stable she is not, but weak, wobbly and a poor performer. Cracks in this perception are starting to cut through, though it will take a few more days to tell by how much. Labour needs these perceptions to shatter – indeed they should, they are far from the truth.
But more than that, the public need to like Jeremy Corbyn.
He is performing far better than May so far in the campaign and rightly he is doing it his way. Labour need more than just moderate shifts though, they need something seismic to give in the public’s view of Jeremy.
With the depth of dislike it’s not likely, but nor is it impossible. It would likely require the continued Conservative implosion for the next three weeks, a flawless Corbyn performance and an usually receptive public.
I still have my money on Labour losing seats, and Labour’s polling problem to cycle again, but hey, it’s 2017 and stranger things have happened.